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23 Dec

Consumer Confidence Bounces Back, Spurs Holiday Retail Rally

Consumers bought slightly cheer back into the vacation season. 

The Conference Board’s closely watched Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in December following back-to-back monthly declines. 

The index rose sharply to 108.3 for this month, marking a rise from 101.4 in November and the very best reading since April. 

That was an enormous — and welcome — surprise as economists had penciled in one other decline, to 100.5. 

Wall Street ran with the news and pushed the market higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.5 percent, or 488.03 points, to 33,337.77 in midday trading. 

Leading retail and fashion stocks was Nike Inc., which was also benefiting from a powerful quarterly profit report late Tuesday, and saw its refill 13.5 percent to $117.17 in midday trading. 

Among the many other industry gainers were Under Armour Inc., up 4.7 percent to $8.65; On Holding, up 4.1 percent to $17.05; Coty Inc., up 4.1 percent to $8.29 ; Lululemon Athletica Inc., up 3.5 percent to $317.71, and Revolve Group Inc., up 3.2 percent to $23.45. 

The Consumer Confidence Index is predicated off a monthly survey that ended Dec. 1 and is comprised of two parts, The Present Situation Index and the forward-looking Expectations Index. 

While the outcomes did show an increase in consumer attitudes, the gains were skewed toward how shoppers are feeling now, not how they feel in regards to the future. 

The Present Situation Index rose to 147.2 from 138.3 last month. But The Expectations Index increased to 82.4 from 76.7 — with a reading around 80 seen as “related to recession,” in keeping with the research group.

Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, said, “The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes improved as a result of consumers’ more favorable view regarding the economy and jobs. Inflation expectations retreated in December to their lowest level since September 2021, with recent declines in gas prices a serious impetus. Vacation intentions improved but plans to buy homes and big-ticket appliances cooled further. This shift in consumers’ preference from big-ticket items to services will proceed in 2023, as will headwinds from inflation and rate of interest hikes.”

The wrinkle is that the Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve is raising rates of interest in an effort to chill the job market and consumer demand, looking to cut back shopper’s buying power to bring down inflation. 

If shoppers keep spending, Powell and Co. will keep raising rates to fight inflation with the danger being a recession — or more serious recession — next 12 months.  

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