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14 Feb

Inflation Slowed in January, but Not Enough

Inflation Slowed in January

Inflation Slowed in January

Inflation slowed in January, but not enough to ease the concerns of anyone — from investors sweating out the market to consumers trading all the way down to budget-minded shopping options.

The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index rose 6.4 percent last month, marking a slight declaration from December, when prices rose 6.5 percent from a yr earlier.

For the Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve, which seeks to maintain inflation closer to 2 percent, prices are still growing uncomfortably fast, meaning the central bank’s drive to chill down the economy by making it dearer to borrow money is prone to proceed.

And that can proceed to affect everyone, including the style industry, where consumers outside the rarified world of luxury are showing signs of strain.

January prices on apparel, footwear and accessories rose 3.1 percent from a yr earlier.

That included a 4.9 percent rise in watch and jewellery prices, a 4.5 percent increase in men’s apparel and a 3.5 percent rise in women’s apparel. Those increases were pulled down by the more modest 0.4 percent gain in footwear prices.

The pandemic fed inflation with supply chain back ups, government stimulus checks and a cooped up consumer spending closer to home.

Now those forces have largely passed through and many patrons are more apprehensive concerning the threat of recession than facing bare shelves at stores.

And so some shoppers are gravitating to stores with lower prices.

“Trade-down is clear across the patron spectrum which may benefit off-price retail,” said John Kernan, an analyst at Cowen.

“Off-price visitation rates for girls 18 to 34 sequentially improved in January to 56 percent from 51 percent in December,” Kernan said.

That has the market moving toward The TJX Cos., Ross Stores Inc. and Burlington Stores Inc. — the country’s three largest off-pricers.

Kernan estimated those three corporations could see their share of apparel and accessories market jump from 13.9 percent now to fifteen.3 percent by 2024.

And full-price retailers, wary of diluting their very own brands, are feeding the off-price resurgence.

“Inventory availability for the off-price channel must be structurally improving,” Kernan said. “Many brands and retailers are working to liquidate excess as supply chain normalizes, creating robust availability for off-price.”

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