After a reasonably quiet summer deal-wise — aside from E.l.f.’s unexpected acquisition of skincare brand Naturium — beauty corporations are gearing as much as make moves. But don’t expect the standard September flurry of activity.

“The flurry will really come towards the tip of this 12 months and starting of next, versus Sept. 5 comes around and rapidly every deal was coming to market,” said Ashleigh Barker, a director at Lincoln International’s consumer group.

She noted that many brands are waiting for results or feedback from retailers in order that they go to market armed with the facts to prove they’re a lovely buy and secure their preferred valuation terms. “There’s a profit for them to take somewhat bit more time to be sure things are really buttoned up and that there’s more visibility on a number of the growth initiatives or opportunities that might are available in 2024,” Barker said.

Having all that has never been so essential as buyers, especially strategics, have develop into increasingly picky over potential assets, based on what they have already got on their rosters attributable to a giant acquisition spree over the past decade and changing consumer trends.

Ilya Seglin, managing director at Threadstone LP,  added that coming to market toward the tip of the 12 months allows a brand to market the 2024 outlook, after a difficult 2023 for some. 

“Realistically in the event you got here to market in May, June and are hoping open to shut by the tip of the 12 months, individuals are really valuing you off the 2023 numbers. I just think there’s a lot consumer uncertainty that buyers and investors will not be yet taking a leap of religion and are basing their value on 2024 numbers.”

Indeed, a slew of shops including Bath & Body Works, Kohl’s and Macy’s, have reported that buyers tightened their purse strings in the course of the most up-to-date reporting quarter amid economic uncertainty and the back-and-forth over student loan debt forgiveness.

There are, nevertheless, some significant players already available in the market. As reported by WWD, K18 and Tree Hut are among the many brands which have tapped bankers to assist them secure a deal, although sources imagine the latter has paused its process amid a misalignment in valuations.

On the client side, Orevon, which acquired Bare Minerals, Laura Mercier and Buxom in a $700 million deal that closed in 2021, is one in all the businesses actively trying to add two skincare brands to its portfolio.

“My dream is to have one by the fourth quarter,” said Pascal Houdayer, chief executive officer of Orveon. “I don’t have any limitation when it comes to geographic footprint.”

Then there’s Amyris. The onetime biotech darling turned Chapter 11 bankruptcy case is putting lots of its consumer brands up on the market, although a timeline is unknown. These include Naomi Watts’ menopausal beauty brand Stripes, color cosmetics line Rose Inc. with model Rosie Huntington-Whiteley, and hair care brand JVN with “Queer Eye” star Jonathan Van Ness. It originally launched with Biossance, centered around Amyris’ star ingredient, squalane.

A banking source said that there’s more likely to be most demand for Biossance, launched in 2016, and JVN, however the sale process for the prior could also be complicated. That’s because its key ingredient is squalane derived from sugarcane; it’s produced by Amyris but owned by Givaudan. A separate source described Biossance as “a terrific brand with a lot of support from Sephora,” adding that there will certainly be interest in it.

There is anticipated to be interest around Rose Inc., too, and a few have speculated whether the celebrities themselves will try to purchase the brands they’re affiliated with.

Brazilian beauty conglomerate Natura & Co also recently revealed that it was mulling a possible sale of The Body Shop.

As for strategics, The Estée Lauder Cos. Inc. is more likely to be taking a deep breath and pausing on any big moves after acquiring Tom Ford in a deal valuing the brand at $2.8 billion.

Lauder’s chief financial officer Tracey T. Travis recently told WWD: “We’re all the time where now we have white space opportunities inside a portfolio, but I’d say that’s a bit slower right away. Now we have the Tom Ford acquisition that we’ve just done and the Deciem upcoming pending acquisition.”

There’ll likely be some small deals, though, through its Recent Incubation Ventures launched in March 2021. It has already invested in grooming brand Faculty, on the time valuing it at $3 million, and put money into British natural skincare and fragrance brand Haeckels. 

This practice is becoming more common amongst beauty’s biggest players. As a substitute of only making very big bets, they seem to have modified tactics and are also making various smaller wagers on what the longer term looks like through investments in very early-stage beauty and tech corporations. Some corporations are making investments as little as $50,000 in emerging brands and lots of are capped at around $10 million.

L’Oréal, meanwhile, is known to still be in an acquisitive mood even after spending a lot of money on Aesop in a  deal that valued the Australian luxury personal care brand at $2.5 billion. Speculation continues to flow into that L’Oréal could possibly be a possible home for K18.

And it’s not only M&A that is anticipated to choose up at the tip of this 12 months and starting of next, with beauty corporations on the lookout for an exit also increasingly mulling an initial public offering after the success of Il Makiage and SpoiledChild owner Oddity.

Names which were thrown around in the sweetness industry as potential future IPOs include Harry’s, Function of Beauty and even lifestyle brand Goop, which could follow in the trail of Kim Kardashian’s Skims. 

“Clearly, IPOs can be a giant a part of next 12 months with the markets opening,” said Lindsay Carlson, a managing director at investment bank William Blair, said. “With Oddity opening the sweetness narrative, we’ll see more to come back to when it comes to not only M&A and growth capital raises but IPOs as well.”

But with Olaplex proving to be the cautionary tale because it struggles on the general public markets following its IPO in 2021, brands could have to tread fastidiously.