The prestige makeup world is a murky place immediately, particularly within the U.S. market.

Industry sources said numbers from the NPD Group in the primary quarter showed significant declines in sales across a few of the biggest makeup brands, including MAC, Urban Decay, and Anastasia Beverly Hills — which is alleged to be down greater than 20 percent. The corporate didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment. Other big name brands, including Bobbi Brown, Smashbox, Tarte, Stila and Chanel makeup, were also said to have posted dips within the quarter.

In all, NPD said makeup sales were down 3 percent through April.

Industry sources questioned those numbers, saying that the agency can’t track exclusive or direct-to-consumer brands, and that sales from those corporations could have definitely boosted makeup numbers to a minimum of a break-even point. Brands that aren’t tracked include Fenty, Huda Beauty, Kylie Cosmetics, Morphe, Glossier and plenty of others. It’s a problem NPD has recognized — the corporate has organized meetings around the way it should potentially evolve its data sourcing.

It’s possible a part of the reported sales dips were made up through brand e-commerce operations, which many corporations have began to deal with as a method to capture customer data. But industry insiders are speculating that untracked newcomers are taking market share at the identical time consumer interest in makeup — which peppered the space with launch after launch for a multiyear stretch — has been somewhat exhausted. On top of that, consumers are beginning to shop for makeup that offers them a more natural look than the cake-y, contoured trends seen on Instagram. Tinted moisturizer was up 14 percent year-to-date through April, based on NPD.

“That tells me the trend is toward less is more, not as heavy coverage, possibly fewer products,” said one industry source.

“There are a mixture of things that affected prestige makeup decline, and consumers favoring the no-makeup makeup look is certainly one of them,” NPD Beauty industry analyst Larissa Jensen said, noting that NPD can be showing a 29 percent year-to-date decline in makeup launches for this 12 months.

One other factor, though, is consumers shopping in latest channels, she noted.

NPD’s numbers show the makeup category was up 1 percent, to $8.1 billion, for that point period. In response to Euromonitor data, prestige makeup sales within the U.S. were up 5.25 percent for 2018, to greater than $9.4 billion. Euromonitor says its numbers account for retail and online sales, including direct-to-consumer brands.

With out a clear picture, retailers are left to deal with the clearly growing categories.

At Sephora’s latest Times Square outpost, nearly half the shop is devoted to skincare, hair care, fragrance and wellness.

It’s a daring move — and a shift — for the chain that one source termed “the number-one makeup retailer within the U.S.”

Makeup still plays a giant role at the brand new location, however the categories which can be showing growth in beauty, namely skin and hair, are more prominently featured than in Sephora layouts past. The choice underscores a reality within the U.S. beauty market — prestige makeup is not any longer the star of the show.

Over at Ulta, which has revamped its skincare and hair offerings and recently introduced the wellness category, prestige makeup sales have been hit and miss. In the primary quarter, latest launches within the segment generally underperformed against Ulta’s expectations, chief executive officer Mary Dillon told Wall Street analysts on the corporate’s earnings call in late May.

“Lots of [the prestige makeup brands], including a few of the biggest brands…are continuing to struggle. There’s a metamorphosis within the makeup business immediately. The category stays healthy but there’s a shift in consumer preference on brands,” said Dave Kimbell, Ulta’s president and chief merchandising and marketing officer. Ulta has shifted its own makeup merchandising technique to deal with direct-to-consumer brands like Morphe and Colourpop, which it sells because the exclusive retail partner.

“As we glance forward on our business, we’re not anticipating that a few of the big brands which were a drain turning around immediately, but we’re confident over time that these brands will regain their footing and get back to growth,” Kimbell said.

Fabrizio Freda, president and ceo of the Esteé Lauder Cos., said in a May interview that declines in foot traffic within the U.S. specifically hurt the makeup category, greater than the repeat-purchase categories of skincare or fragrance. “Makeup may be very depending on traffic moments. That’s why I think it was hit a bit harder recently, and that’s why I think it’ll probably come back next 12 months,” Freda said. The corporate is popping to granular product and marketing initiatives to attempt to combat the slowdown, he noted.

But several industry sources remained skeptical that makeup is poised for a right away comeback, noting that the sweetness category is cyclical.

“Historically, there was a pendulum between makeup and skincare where [consumers] fluctuate by way of…spend. They’ll spend numerous money on makeup, after which all of them break out after which they spend on skincare,” said Conor Begley, cofounder of influencer data agency Tribe Dynamics. Tribe tracks what beauty influencers are talking about, and recently, they’re talking less about makeup, Begley said.

“Now we have seen a slowdown in social content year-over-year,” Begley said. “Should you look across the highest 50 brands, it’s a few 3 percent decline in makeup.”

Numbers aside, category dynamics are shifting, too.

NPD data shows year-to-date upticks in categories used to create a “born with it” look, based on Jensen. Tinted moisturizer, concealer, makeup setting sprays and powders and eye brow products are up, she noted, but lip color and eye shadow are each down.

In response to Yarden Horwitz, cofounder of search analytics business Spate, consumers are searching more online for skin-care than makeup — though she noted skin-care searches have also faced a success recently due to declines in face masks, which had been driving much of the category interest.

Currently, Spate’s data shows an uptick in searches for procedures — eyelash extensions, dermaplaning, hydrafacials, cheek fillers and Botox have all seen increases in search volume over the past 12 months, Horwitz said. 

In makeup, tinted moisturizer searches are up 21.1 percent 12 months over 12 months, and lip gloss is up 10.1 percent, based on Spate. Within the face category, where searches declined 2.3 percent year-over-year, people were searching about topics related to foundation shade selections and skin concerns, especially pimples. Within the lip category, where searches dipped 10 percent, searches for lip plumper, liner and lipstick all declined, based on Spate.

“The start of 2019 indicates that customers is perhaps less enthusiastic about newness in an already saturated market,” Jensen said.