For retailers clearing out spring/summer goods to make room for back-to-school merchandise, the dog days of summer are already here.

Price promotions in June through the Fourth of July period have intensified for a lot of stores, at levels at or above last 12 months. They’re trumpeting discounts of fifty to 60 percent off, sometimes at the same time as high as 70 percent off, with the most important deals seen online versus in stores.

Despite retailers actively bringing inventories down, markdowns are most noticeable within the casual and profession sportswear categories across men’s, women’s and youngsters’s, in addition to in handbags and even swimwear, where sell-throughs generally haven’t lived as much as expectations.

By price promoting early, retailers hope to offset a number of the impact of Amazon Prime Day, which happens on July 11 and 12. Still, that vast promotion is more of a phenomenon relevant to the mass merchant sector. In tandem with Prime Day, there are Goal Deal Days from July 9 through July 15; Best Buy’s Black Friday around the identical time, and Walmart’s Plus Week starting Thursday. The China-based extreme value-oriented Shein could thoroughly join the Prime Day bandwagon.

Retailing has been hurt by the persistence of inflation; Americans traveling at record levels this summer, leaving less money for discretionary spending, and violent weather conditions across much of the Midwest and South in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, concerns concerning the back-to-school season being impacted by the Supreme Court’s decision last week to overturn the Biden administration’s student-debt forgiveness plan are growing. The president’s plan would have eradicated about $430 billion in loans, though he has indicated there could be alternative plans that might help alleviate student loan burdens.

Among the many steeper promotions, Gap brand on Monday posted online sales offering 50 percent off select varieties of shorts, T-shirts and swimwear. Kate Spade advertised an additional 50 percent off sale styles through the Fourth of July. Magnetic Me, which sells merchandise for newborns, toddlers and youngsters, triggered Monday a 60 percent off site-wide sale.

Australian swim and resort wear brand Lisa Maree is staging a Fourth of July site-wide sale at as much as 60 percent. Athleta’s semi-annnual sale also offers as much as 60 percent off and various styles under $60. Wayfair’s July Fourth clearance offers as much as 70 percent off. Lands’ End offered as much as 76 percent off orders, and Madewell’s “Big Summer Sale” promoted as much as 60 percent off items in stores and online.

Back-to-school selling typically takes off in mid- to late July, depending on the retailer, and stays regular through Labor Day. This 12 months, in response to industry analysts, the b-t-s business needs to be satisfactory for retailers, but no barn burner.

“Retailers are starting discounts a bit earlier they usually’re larger — even with inventories coming down,” observed Dana Telsey, chief executive officer and chief research officer of the Telsey Advisory Group. “The main focus is on the buyer being more discerning, so you should give you the chance to capture the buyer when you’ll be able to.

“Back-to-school will probably be a competitive season,” with budgets shifting more to essentials, Telsey predicted.

Asked concerning the Supreme Court’s overruling of the scholar loan forgiveness, she said: “It’ll be an overhang, and in the combo of the discussion of how much to spend. Don’t forget inflation is on the market, though evidently’s change into less of the conversation.”

On the brighter side, “Inventories are being managed thoroughly,” Telsey said. “They’re coming down faster than people expected. The main focus is on chasing into demand.”

“It’s like a tale of two cities. Right away, sell-through varies significantly by retailer,” observed Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners. “Some still must hustle to get stuff off the ground. It’s best to do away with it before the height back-to-school shopping starts. But you do see that some retailers have cleared through a number of merchandise, or shipped it to outlets. Normally, retailers have a greater balance [of sales to inventory] than a 12 months ago.”

“Promotions at malls are heavier. Macy’s for a short while was not so promotional but they’re back at it, together with the department store sector,” Jessica Ramirez, senior retail analyst on the Jane Hali & Associates investment research firm, told WWD. Goal’s promotions, Ramirez said, “are almost flat in comparison with last 12 months. Their discounts are less and there are less categories at discount. They’ve been in a position to move inventories.”

Ramirez added that some brands where business has been soft, corresponding to Gap, “are beginning to dip into heavier promotions, though Coach is keeping their promotions in line.” Across the industry in June, resulting from semi-annual sales, “We saw more markdowns and traffic went up in June in comparison with May online,” Ramirez said, referring to data from Similarweb, an internet site traffic analytics and competitive intelligence firm.

In her report on promotions, issued Monday, Ramirez wrote: “Department shops have began to extend promotions year-over-year. Macy’s and Kohl’s have increased promotions within the variety of categories and the proportion of discounting…Markdown cadence within the U.S. was high across some brands/retailers resulting from the semi-annual sales many hosted in June.

“Brands/retailers with a high markdown cadence include Foot Locker, Nike, Under Armour, Kors, Levi’s and Revolve Group,” Ramirez indicated. Still, for the industry overall, “Even with promotions/markdowns, prices are mostly flat year-over-year across categories. [But] we’ve noted some decreases across seasonal colorways/products.”

Looking ahead, Ethan Chernofsky, vp of selling at Placer.ai, which tracks foot traffic at stores, wrote in his report that many consumers have delayed big-ticket items in recent months resulting from high rates of interest and the larger macroeconomic situation. “These shoppers may use the July sales as opportunities to buy these things at a reduction. And with back-to-school coming up, parents are prone to make the most of the markdowns to fill up on children’s clothing and college supplies.

“But shoppers may be more careful with their spending than in previous years and make fewer expensive impulse purchases,” Chernofsky added. “And with some consumers in search of a reason to buy — without breaking the bank — cheaper categories, corresponding to apparel and sweetness, which are usually not typical major Prime Day winners, may receive a major boost. Analyzing weekly retail visits to key categories also suggests that beauty and apparel are prone to do quite well through the upcoming sales events. Walmart has also seen strong visitation trends recently — perhaps because of its repute for particularly low prices — and may attract a fair greater variety of shoppers during its discount event.

“Meanwhile, Goal’s baseline growth has been more muted, but that’s heavily related to their high place to begin, and with today’s consumers on the hunt for bargains, Goal’s Circle Week could be expected to drive traffic back to the corporate’s stores.”

Johnson of Customer Growth Partners advises that inventory levels needs to be commensurate with sales levels or a bit above. “If sales are up 4 percent, you wish your inventories to be barely above that.”

Asked for his outlook on the back-to-school season, Johnson said that receipts have been arriving to stores, and that he expects sales to be up 3.7 percent. “That’s OK, not great. Persons are way more considered of their purchases.”

“Given the recent news of student loan repayments, I feel the low and middle income is more prone to be affected,” Ramirez at Jane Hali said. “Mass and malls are prone to be affected, but off-price could be winners as consumers trade down.”